BP Forecasts Elevated Oil, Gas Demand Amid Energy Security Concerns

BP has overhauled its long-term energy outlook, signaling that the world is unlikely to stay on track for 2050 climate commitments as fossil fuel use holds firmer than expected. The company’s latest projections show oil demand reaching roughly 83 million barrels a day by mid-century, up from last year’s estimate of 77 million. 

Forecasts for natural gas were also revised upward, with annual consumption in 2050 expected to approach 4,800 billion cubic meters. These shifts underline how resilient hydrocarbons remain in the face of clean energy targets. 

The changes are being driven less by technology than by geopolitics. BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale pointed to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as growing trade barriers, as central factors pushing countries to prioritize security of supply. Governments worried about disruptions are increasingly investing in energy sources they can control at home. 

Some may accelerate electrification with local low-carbon power, producing what Dale calls “electrostates,” while others may turn more heavily toward domestic oil and gas even at the expense of climate pledges. 

One of the most notable adjustments in BP’s analysis is the delayed arrival of peak oil. The company now expects consumption to crest at about 103 million barrels per day around 2030, five years later than previously assumed. Current use is already close to 100 million, meaning demand is still climbing when climate models require it to begin tapering. This lag complicates any realistic pathway to net zero and highlights the stickiness of entrenched consumption habits. 

Meeting climate objectives would require a far sharper decline than today’s trajectory suggests. Oil consumption would need to fall to the mid-80 million range within the next decade, then collapse to around 35 million barrels daily by 2050. BP’s outlook shows little evidence that this kind of steep contraction is achievable under existing policy frameworks. The result is a growing divergence between official targets and the reality of continued dependence on hydrocarbons. 

That dependency shows up clearly in the broader energy mix. Oil is projected to remain the single largest source of global supply through much of the 2030s and 2040s, holding about a 30 percent share in 2035. Renewables are expanding steadily, from around 10 percent of supply in 2023 to 15 percent a dozen years later, but are not set to surpass oil until the late 2040s at the earliest. The mismatch between renewable growth and fossil fuel resilience makes the transition far slower than advocates hoped. 

BP’s modeling carries a stark warning: if current patterns continue, cumulative carbon emissions will exceed the budget for holding global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius in the early 2040s. Each year of delay raises the economic and social price tag of eventual decarbonization, making it less likely that governments can close the gap between energy security needs and climate ambitions. 

With tech companies like D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) requiring ever-increasing amounts of energy to develop and power their systems, the demand for more energy is becoming urgent and creative ways to meet this exploding demand need to be developed. 

NOTE TO INVESTORS: The latest news and updates relating to D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) are available in the company’s newsroom at https://ibn.fm/QBTS 

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